{
  "experiment": "Monopoly Arena",
  "version": "official-hasbro-2026",
  "engine": "deterministic-hash-chained",
  "date": "2026-10-20",
  "simulations": {
    "total_games": 64000,
    "baseline_vs_trader_games": 36000,
    "baseline_vs_buyall_games": 28000,
    "fair_share": 0.25,
    "rules": {
      "ending": "last_player_standing",
      "open_ascending_auctions": true,
      "between_turns_building": true,
      "housing_shortage_auctions": true,
      "duplicate_seeded": true
    },
    "strategies": [
      {
        "policy": "camper,trader",
        "label": "Camper (espera en la cárcel con ≥6 casas rivales)",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.259,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.246,
          0.273
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.253,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.23,
          0.277
        ],
        "statistically_significant": false
      },
      {
        "policy": "norail,trader",
        "label": "No Rail (ignora ferrocarriles y utilidades)",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.251,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.238,
          0.265
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.251,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.228,
          0.274
        ],
        "statistically_significant": false
      },
      {
        "policy": "trader",
        "label": "Control (compra todo, edifica a hoteles, negocia por EV)",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.25,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.237,
          0.264
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.25,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.227,
          0.274
        ],
        "statistically_significant": false
      },
      {
        "policy": "focus:green+darkblue,trader",
        "label": "Foco exclusivo en Verdes y Azules Oscuros",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.231,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.218,
          0.245
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": null,
        "ci95_buyall": null,
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      },
      {
        "policy": "threehouse,trader",
        "label": "Tres Casas (frena en 3 casas, hotel solo con > 600 €)",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.227,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.214,
          0.24
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.248,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.225,
          0.272
        ],
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      },
      {
        "policy": "focus:orange+red,trader",
        "label": "Foco exclusivo en Naranjas y Rojos",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.225,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.213,
          0.238
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.173,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.154,
          0.195
        ],
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      },
      {
        "policy": "reserve:300,trader",
        "label": "Reserva de seguridad 300 €",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.203,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.191,
          0.216
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.161,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.141,
          0.182
        ],
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      },
      {
        "policy": "reserve:600,trader",
        "label": "Reserva de seguridad 600 €",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.12,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.11,
          0.13
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": null,
        "ci95_buyall": null,
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      },
      {
        "policy": "buyall",
        "label": "Comprar todo sin comerciar jamás",
        "win_rate_trader": 0.064,
        "ci95_trader": [
          0.057,
          0.072
        ],
        "win_rate_buyall": 0.25,
        "ci95_buyall": [
          0.227,
          0.274
        ],
        "statistically_significant": true,
        "direction": "below"
      }
    ],
    "seat_order_effect": {
      "seat_1": 0.278,
      "seat_2": 0.27,
      "seat_3": 0.235,
      "seat_4": 0.212
    }
  },
  "frontier_tournament": {
    "tournament_name": "frontier-1",
    "total_games": 12,
    "completed_by_bankruptcy": 12,
    "models": [
      {
        "model": "Claude Opus 5.5",
        "wins": 7,
        "win_rate": 0.58,
        "ci95": [
          0.32,
          0.81
        ],
        "mean_rank": 1.75,
        "invalid_decisions_pct": 0.0,
        "trades": 49,
        "groups_completed": 15,
        "groups_handed_to_opponents": 6,
        "median_cash_paid": 300,
        "private_dms": 30,
        "public_messages": 8
      },
      {
        "model": "GPT-6 Astra",
        "wins": 5,
        "win_rate": 0.42,
        "ci95": [
          0.19,
          0.68
        ],
        "mean_rank": 2.0,
        "invalid_decisions_pct": 0.2,
        "trades": 52,
        "groups_completed": 10,
        "groups_handed_to_opponents": 8,
        "median_cash_paid": 75,
        "private_dms": 23,
        "public_messages": 12
      },
      {
        "model": "Kimi K2.5",
        "wins": 0,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "ci95": [
          0.0,
          0.24
        ],
        "mean_rank": 3.0,
        "invalid_decisions_pct": 14.3,
        "trades": 25,
        "groups_completed": 4,
        "groups_handed_to_opponents": 12,
        "median_cash_paid": 400,
        "private_dms": 4,
        "public_messages": 3
      },
      {
        "model": "DeepSeek V3.2",
        "wins": 0,
        "win_rate": 0.0,
        "ci95": [
          0.0,
          0.24
        ],
        "mean_rank": 3.25,
        "invalid_decisions_pct": 3.9,
        "trades": 44,
        "groups_completed": 4,
        "groups_handed_to_opponents": 7,
        "median_cash_paid": 500,
        "private_dms": 0,
        "public_messages": 20
      }
    ]
  }
}